Cherry blossom peak bloom is predicted to occur between March 28 and March 31, according to a report from the National Mall Park Service.
Peak bloom, defined by NPS as the day when 70 percent of Cherry tree blossoms are open, typically occurs in D.C. between late March and early April. This year’s predicted dates represent a return to recent trends after 2024’s peak bloom occurred unusually early on March 17 due to warmer temperatures in January 2024.
NPS predicts peak bloom based on bud development, historical data and weather conditions. Although the exact date of a peak bloom is difficult for experts to predict more than ten days in advance, atypically cold weather this January in D.C. caused NPS to forecast peak bloom in late March, with the agency announcing their prediction in a tweet last Thursday.
“You heard it here first! We’re predicting Cherry Blossom Peak Bloom to fall between March 28-31 this year,” NPS said in the tweet.
Peak bloom is dependent on the local climate, with warmer winter temperatures accelerating bud development, and cold snaps or frosts slowing them down, according to NPS. Global warming has caused local temperatures in D.C. to increase by 2 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 50 years, according to Sustainable D.C. Over the past century, the average peak bloom time of cherry blossoms has moved up from April 4 to March 29, with no peak blooms occurring after March 29 in the last five years.
On average over 1.5 million tourists travel to D.C. to observe peak bloom annually, generating an estimated $100 million in revenue in the District, according to the Washington Times.
An earlier peak bloom could cause a mismatch with the influx of tourists, many of whom arrive for the National Cherry Blossom Festival planned months in advance.
The 2025 National Cherry Blossom Festival will start on March 20 and continue until April 13. The festival will include the annual National Cherry Blossom Festival Parade, the Blossom Kite Festival and Japanese cultural events like Sakura Matsuri, a traditional Japanese street festival which recognizes Japan for gifting the trees to the United States in 1912. In 2024, the Cherry Blossom Festival drew 1.6 million attendees, the highest number since the COVID-19 pandemic, with visitors spending a total of $202 million in the local economy.
